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Mega leaps: it’s time for leaders to challenge everything

February 15, 2026

NISTA’s latest Major Projects Annual Report has just rated the UK’s 189 largest government programmes, a £924.2 billion portfolio expected to deliver £603.6 billion in benefits. Of those 189, only 29, 15%, are rated green, meaning delivery confidence is high with no major issues in sight. 58% are amber. 18% are red. If you sat on the delivery side of any one of them, none of that would surprise you. What’s worth paying attention to is what moved this year, and what it says about where the fix actually lives.

The number that matters more than the snapshot

Twenty-six projects successfully exited the portfolio this year, up from 14 the year before, and 18 projects moved from amber to green. One even moved from red all the way to green. A single-year rating is a snapshot of where a programme happens to be standing. A move from amber to green is evidence that something was actually donedifferently, and eighteen instances of that in one year is not noise.

Where the improvement actually happened

Seventy per cent of this year’s exits came from Government Transformation and Service Delivery projects, the category built around digital and process change rather than physical construction. That’s notable. These are exactly the programmes where the difference between amber and green usually comes down to the unglamorous basics: clear governance, realistic planning and sequencing, and someone operationally accountable for the link between change activity and outcome. Infrastructure and Construction remains the largest category by cost at £450 billion, and Military Capability the largest by scale of ambition, but it’s the transformation programmes that show what disciplined delivery does when it’s applied properly.

Why the amber majority is the real story

58% amber is not a crisis rating, and it shouldn’t be read as one. It’s the holding pattern most complex programmes sit in for long stretches (and I speak from personal experience), dependent on decisions, funding profiles or delivery risks that haven’t yet resolved either way. The real question a 58% amber figure raises isn’t “why aren’t these programmes green,” it’s “what determines whether an amber programme moves toward green or drifts toward red.” This year’s data gives a partial answer: the programmes that moved were disproportionately the ones where delivery discipline, not just funding or ambition, was strengthened. Amber itself is not the problem; amber without a clear route to green can become a permanent condition.

 

What this means if you’re running one of these programmes

If your programme sits in the amber 58%, the lesson from this year’s movers is specific rather than general. It isn’t “get more funding” or “set a more ambitious target,” both of which were almost certainly already true. It’s the operational layer underneath: whether governance is clear enough that decisions get made at the right level, whether sequencing reflects what the delivery team can actually absorb, and whether someone owns the connection between what’s being delivered and the benefit it was meant to produce. The Chief Secretary to the Treasury put it plainly this year: building things in the UK has felt too difficult, too expensive, too complicated, too slow. The 26 exits and 18 upgrades are the evidence that this is fixable at the level of individual programmes, not just at the level of national strategy.

Where TVI fits in

This is the layer we work in every day: embedding with client teams to bring the governance, sequencing and delivery discipline that moves a programme from amber toward green, and staying close enough to the detail that “on track” means something more than a status update. If your organisation is running a digital programme that’sbeen sitting in amber longer than it should, that’s a conversation worth having now, while there’s still time to change the trajectory.

Get in touch with Triple Value Impact to talk about what it would take to move your programme toward green.

Private sector disruptors offer lessons in how to take a whole-system approach, says Tim Pitts, founding member at Triple Value Impact

In previous columns we’ve talked about why local government is at the stage where it must think boldly about transformation and embrace the full capability of digital solutions. I firmly believe, as do the numerous local authority leaders I’ve discussed this with, that local government must drive these transformational ‘mega leaps’ if they are to considerably improve outcomes.

For local authorities to truly become digital enablers, there is a clear need to pivot business models and rethink service delivery, akin to how Airbnb, Uber and Netflix have. It’s no coincidence that businesses doing well in the private sector are underpinned by digitisation. While local authorities are very different from the private sector, there is no reason we can’t use the thinking, approach and technology.

Take an overview

The ‘easy’ approach is to deal with the presenting problem. But to make a mega leap, one needs to step back and look at the whole system – and aim to go as far upstream/early in demand as possible. This sounds simple, but it is challenging given the relentless demands on everyone.

Take potholes. In a unitary or county there are between 20 and 50 people involved in potholes (contact centre, highways officers, all the supporting functions, etc). The typical response is to put the pothole reporting process online to avoid contact in the contact centre (ie the tail end of the process), which addresses a handful of demand. However, look at the entire system and available technology. You can reduce demand on all involved and repurpose the savings to focus on the roads themselves.

Digitisation essentially gives you the levers to manage demand up or down. C-suite leaders must be prepared to challenge everything their organisation does – and embrace the methodologies of successful private sector disruptors.

Personalised digital marketing is a hugely under-utilised weapon in local government

You might be asking what digital has to do with many services, including reducing the cost of waste. Yet the potential for lowering landfill tax is massive by influencing customer behaviour – personalised digital marketing is a hugely under-utilised weapon in local government. If we think about flying, airlines do everything possible to reduce demand at the airport through online check-in, reminders about baggage limits, notifications about gates and delays and so on. All of this is about influencing the customer to do something different.

The same thinking can be applied to recycling.

I heard recently at a conference that 70% of children's social care time is spent on administration. In the past, the insurance sector was in a similar position. Buying a policy would have involved an underwriter assessing an application and multiple manual processes. Now data is used to assess risk without underwriter involvement in most cases. The insurer’s data is all connected, so they don’t need to do many of the previous costly manual steps but maintain checks and balances. The forms are largely pre-filled, and the time spent by both the insurer and end user is a fraction of what it used to be (and in most cases, paper free), allowing for end-to-end electronic processing and better customer experience.

The year of data

Local authorities can transform in the same way. At the heart of a mega leap is the need to understand demand, what it is, where it is coming from, what is creating it, and what levers are available to alter it. Local authorities are sitting on rich and diverse datasets that, when cleansed and connected, will provide transformative actionable insight.

I was privileged to sit on the LGC Digital Impact award panel. This year was the year of data, with some fabulous examples including the use of AI in the environmental team at Lancaster City Council, the use of data to auto-award grants by several authorities enabled by Policy in Practice, while the winner, Stockport MBC, had developed a data-driven culture to underpin its digital transformation. There is, however, a long way to go, and these neat examples are the tip of the iceberg and the key to unlocking the mega leap.

In adult social care we are seeing the use of AI to predict when someone will become vulnerable to falls before they have their first fall, auto-prescribe IoT in-home technology to provide real-time monitoring, which can be shared with family/friends/neighbours, so they become the first and second port of call if a fall happens. But can you connect this data with other digital interventions to make changes to the whole system, including health? This is only a matter of time.

Barriers remain to the mega leaps needed to unlock this potential, including culture, capacity and capability. The correct modern, cloud-enabled and clean IT foundations are equally important. We must embrace creative commercial models that fund IT modernisation at a net-nil cost while reducing revenue pressure and providing the required budgetary space and digital foundations. We’re confident that, with our partners, we’ve found the answer – and we would love the opportunity to talk you through it.

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